Covid-19: Hoax or Realty?

Leon Festinger published his book When Prophecy Fails in 1956. This book is Dr. Festinger’s account of what the members of an American UFO cult did when they were unexpectedly forced to confront the fact that the world they believed was going to end, in fact did not end on the day their leader had prophesized.

In When Prophecy Fails, Dr. Festinger describes how fervently the individuals in this cult believed in their leader and his doomsday prophecy. Most particularly, it describes the twists and turns that its members took in their effort to digest their leader’s failed prophecy. What astonished Dr. Festinger the most was the bizarre contortions these cult members went through in order to digest the reality they were struggling with, especially how their struggle did not, in any way, cause them to walk away from their leader, his doomsday predictions, or the cult itself.

Rather than acknowledge that their leader had been wrong, and that the world had not come to an end, they simply pivoted and chose to believe that the reason the world had not come to an end as predicted was because the power of their faith had saved the world! Ultimately, they used this fanciful new belief as a base from which recruit new cult members!

What Festinger’s witnessed while watching this cult led him to develop a theory of what he called “cognitive dissonance.” In his book about this concept , Festinger defined cognitive dissonance like this:

“Cognitive dissonance shows up when an individual (or a collection of individuals) experience the psychological opposition of irreconcilable ideas. When experienced simultaneously, this kind of psychological contradiction leads people to (either) adjust their beliefs and behaviors to fit observable reality, or to changing their behavior to fit their pre-existing belief.”

Cognitive Dissonance in America?

In 1956, Dr. Festinger watched as the members of a cult turned themselves inside out in order to deny the reality of their own experience. When the world didn’t end they, both individually and collectively, and without a moments hesitation, found a way to deny their own real-world experience while maintaining their original doomsday beliefs.

For months now, 2020's election polls have been telling us that 31% of America’s eligible voters believe that what President Trump is saying about the causes, consequences, and cures for the Corononavirus pandemic are true. At the same time, these polls are also telling us that 51 % of America’s eligible voters believe that what Anthony Fauci and other health experts are saying about the causes, consequences, and cures for this very same virus are true.

31% believe Trump — 51% believe Fauci.

To me, these statistics suggest that America, as a nation, is living through its very own cognitive dissonance moment. In Dr. Festinger’s terms, we are right now a “collection of individuals who are firmly caught in the midst of experiencing the psychological opposition of contradictory, irreconcilable ideas.”

To get a sense of this, take a look at four specific examples of the two different stories that President Trump and this country’s preeminent health scientists are telling us about the Coronavirus Pandemic:

• On February 27th, 2020: President Trump said “This pandemic is going to disappear. One day it’s like a miracle — it will disappear.”
• On March 2020: Dr Fauci said: “It’ clear that the virus, known as SARS-CoV-2, is here to stay.”

— — — —

• Multiple times: President Trump has said “The coronavirus numbers are looking much better, going down almost everywhere”
• June 2020: Dr. Scott Gottlieb said, “We’re seeing the positivity rates go up. That’s a clear indication there is now community spread underway, and this isn’t just a function of testing more.”

— — — — —

• July 4th, 2020: President Trump said “99% of COVID-19 cases are totally harmless.”
• July 2020: The World Health Organization said “for Covid-19, data showst that…15% of infections are severe, requiring oxygen and 5% are critical, requiring ventilation…A person who is asymptomatic might consider the disease ‘totally harmless,’ but that person can still infect a family member, a close friend or someone else — who could die of the disease or be permanently impaired.”

— — — — —

• Multiple Times: President Trump said “Children are virtually immune to Covid-19.
• July, 2020: Dr. Mark Schleiss said, “Trump is wrong on two counts: his statement about immunity and his suggestion that children are less likely to catch the germ than adults…How could you have immunity to it if you never even encountered it before?…as a pediatrician, immunologist and vaccine researcher, the statement is absurd, and unequivocally incorrect.”

Restoring Our Collective Sense of Reality

In the 70 odd years since Festinger first published his theory, other researchers have expanded his original definition of cognitive dissonance several times. For example, today’s experts now know that cognitive dissonance, and the tendency to deny reality that comes with it, is a phenomenon that’s triggered by subtle, but distinctly uncomfortable feelings of anxiety that emerge for individuals and groups whenever they experience the presence of two important, but essentially contradictory ideas.

Today’ cognitive dissonance experts also know that, because of the contradictory truths that we’re all being subjected to, each of us in our own way is reacting to the mass-confusion about this pandemic that’s all around us. This confusion is like the air we breath.

Moreover, these experts know that too many of us, almost automatically, like robots reacting to a pre-programmed trigger, are doing everything we can to reduce the confusion and anxiety we’re experiencing because of these contradictory messages about the Coronavirus threat. Too many of us, it seems, are resorting to rationalizations, denials, and any other psychological maneuvers that will help us maintain our attachment to our pre-covid sense of normality.

Thankfully, today’s cognitive dissonance research is showing us that when and if we’re able to consciously register the fact that we are experiencing some cognitive dissonance, we can choose to do something about it. If only we can pause long enough to feel our confusion and the anxiety that’s creating it, we can also resist the tendency to automatically deny this pandemic’s uncomfortable realities.

While this is the good news, our real problem is the fact that cognitive dissonance we’re subject to is being forced on us by the long distance conversations that President Trump and our health scientists are having. What they’re saying to each other and us is almost impossible to comprehend because we’re hearing their contradictory messages over an elongated period of time. We are hearing two authoritative sources offer very different reality assertions. That their contradictory statements are separated by weeks and months and several time zones makes it almost impossible to consciously notice the serious contradictions they’re offering.

However, if we can just bring these elongated, contradictory conversations into our conscious awareness, we can then intentionally force ourselves to examine the Coronavirus “realities” that are being proposed (e.g., social distance or not; or wear a mask or not) that contradict each other. Then, rather than instinctively denying one reality and accepting the other, we instead can examine each of the alternative statements of reality to see which is supported by the best evidence.

The Caronavirus Pandemic: Hoax or Reality?

Today, in the middle of a massively important election, Dr. Festinger’s discoveries about when, why, and how cognitive dissonance shows up in our lives are begging us to pay careful attention to what we decide to believe about the presence of and the dangers associated with the Coronavirus pandemic.

Dr. Festinger’s discoveries, when coupled with those that subsequent researchers have developed, show just how important it is for us to realize how easy it is to get confused by the contradictory assertions of truth that are part of today’s presidential election. And how easy, in the face of these contradictions, it is to shut down and short-circuit a search for the truth; how easy it is to slide into a denial of reality.

During this Coronavirus pandemic of ours, being able to recognize one’s propensity for an automatic, robot-like rejection of any uncomfortable reality that goes against the grain is a great prophylactic, an essential palliative for our tendency to unwittingly contort ourselves into silly, unconscious forms of stupidity in order to preserve old pre-existing beliefs about what’s “normal.”

In addition, recent cognitive dissonance research shows us how, when individuals feel a strong connection to a specific leader, they are vulnerable to letting their loyalty to their leader do their thinking for them. We, it seems, are quite willing to forego serious examination of conflicting assertions of truth, and let our loyalty to our leader determine what we chose to believe. We, it seems, are quite willing to ignore any evidence that challenges the wisdom of the leader or leaders who we’ve placed our trust in.

Today, it’s clear that many of us are framing the life-and-death decisions that the coronavirus pandemic is creating for us as political choices rather than medical ones. In the polarized political world we’re living in, all of us are being forced to choose whether we’re going to believe public-health experts, whose advice is necessarily changing as they learn more about the coronavirus or President Trump who, for his own reasons, seems to be suggesting that masks and social distancing are “optional.” Cognitive dissonance on a national scale.

How should we resolve this collective dissonance?

Today, as we confront all the unknowns surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, each of us is facing desperately difficult decisions. Is it or isn’t it safe to get back to work? Should I or shouldn’t I reopen my business? Should I or shouldn’t I see my friends, start a new love affair, or travel? Should I believe President Trump? Or, should I believe Dr. Fauci?

The way we answer these questions will have momentous implications for our own health as individuals, as well as for the health of our families, our neighbors, our communities, and our nation. What is the research that you’re examining telling you about what you should do in response to the Coronavirus Pandemic? Is it a hoax, or a present reality?

Thanks for reading this article. You can find others more information relevant to 2020’s presidential election at TLO’s America’s Next Revolution.

Sources:

Aronson, Eliot & Carol Tavris: The Role of Cognitive Dissonance in the Pandemic

Brooks, Arthur: Two Errors Our Minds Make When Trying to Grasp the Pandemic

Paz, Christian: All the President’s Lies About the Coronavirus